Turkish Elections: Through the Lens of Divine Decree & History

إِنَّا فَتَحْنَا لَكَ فَتْحًا مُّبِينًا

Indeed We have given you a clear conquest. [al-Fath:1]

I was asked “what is the best outcome for Muslims from the results of the election in Turkiye?”

As a student of mine deserves more than “I don’t know” and I’m too old to type a long reply on Whatsapp, here goes a slightly longer reply by way of this post…

Wa ʿalaykum ʾas-salām

My dear student, having studied history from me, you may gauge that I have a different perspective through the lens of history, as opposed to immediate political analysis.

So while the comments of other scholars, and perhaps your own analysis, may advocate an Erdogan victory as “the best outcome for Muslims” I am open to considering other factors.

1. Do not conflate victory of Muslims and victory of Islām

The history of Islām is replete with events, which if analysed through the short-term lens of human or Muslim experience, may seem to have negative outcomes, but have had positive outcomes in the long term for Islām, and Allāh is the best planner. 

For example, much of North Africa resisted local Muslim preachers for centuries, yet it was refugees from ʾal-ʾAndalus whom Allāh used with better success. These refugees would not have preached, and Islām would not have spread, had the Muslims not been defeated in Spain and fled to Africa. What Allāh plans and wills is not for us to question. The romanticism we have for Spain versus the apathy for Africa, cannot be imposed upon the King of Kings.

Similarly the Omani rule of East Africa had minimal profit for our Dīn. The atrocious treatment of the locals blackened the reputation of Islām. When Germany conquered the region from Oman, the association of oppression with Islām faded from memory, and thus an obstacle to conversion was removed. Germany also provided infrastructure to the interior which allowed Muslim preachers to penetrate those regions which they had not before. Thus Islām spread more under the Christian Reich than the Muslim Sultanate. In short, the defeat of the Muslims was a better outcome for Islām.

Ḥudaybiyyah does not need any elucidation for someone on your level. Despite the ostensibly negative outcome for the Muslims, the Qurʾān declared it a “clear conquest” or victory.

While I do not specifically wish Erdogan to be defeated, if we were to translate the aforementioned ideas and examples to current events, an Erdogan defeat does not necessarily equate to a defeat for Islām.  I view it as the height of arrogance to impose our “wisdom” upon Allāh. What we as puny ants see as defeat may simply be the means by which the outcome Allāh desires will materialise.

2. Allāh’s Decrees for the Long-term

 What He decrees for the long-term is above our punditing. This is similar to the previous point. It is however worth pointing out separately, that when Allāh issues His decrees to the angels, these decrees span a millennium, and Allāh sets the means for these events to transpire over said period. (As per the commentaries of Sūrah ʾas-Sajdah). It is thus foolish of me to categorically opine a good result, when I am not privy to Allāh’s plan. This brings me to my next point…

3. The Argument of Supporting the Lesser Evil

At the risk of upsetting many (which never bothers me when speaking the truth), I am not a supporter of Erdogan, nor an opponent. It goes without saying that he has been a boon for the practice of Islām in Turkey. However, his personal behaviour and foreign policy in Muslim Africa is concerning.  

Nevertheless, he is a Muslim, and not a heretical Alevī. Even if bad (and I do not say that he is) he would definitely be the “lesser evil”. However, I do not believe that supporting the “lesser evil” is always an option. Firstly, lesser evil is still evil which cannot be supported. It is like justifying beer vs wine. There would have to be concrete reasons to engage in the lesser evil. If a disbeliever held a gun to your head and forced you to drink an intoxicant, you would choose the less intoxicating substance. But to merrily consume it without compulsion simply because it is a lesser evil is a compounded sin – the consumption plus the justification.

Secondly, I refer to my previous point of long-term outcomes. It is my view, and Allāh knows best, that supporting the lesser evil is short sighted and actually worse for the long term. My reasoning is that support for the lesser evil make us complacent. We are happy that “it could have been worse”. We become lazy and make no effort to improve the situation and replace the lesser evil with good, forgetting that lesser evil is still evil. Thus evil, in whatever form, triumphs.

Again, I do not necessarily say that Erdogan is evil, I merely offer these thoughts as part of the discussion and present that while most would say that an Erdogan defeat is bad for Islām, it may in reality be the impetus Turkish Muslims need to spur them onto a higher level.

4. Individual Responsibility Irrespective of the Divine Plan

Whatever I have written above does not mean that Muslims are absolved from individual responsibility since there is a Divine plan. We are bound by the laws of Sharīʿah, not speculation on divine plans, wisdom and possible beneficial outcomes. Even if Jibrīl (عليه السلام) descended and informed an ʾAndalūsī of what Allāh’s wisdom would be in the loss of Iberia, that would not absolve the Muslims from fighting the Catholics and defending the lands of Islām. Even if Jibrīl (عليه السلام) descended and informed every Turk that Allāh has a divine long-term plan which will come about through the secular opposition winning the election, no Muslim can consciously support the disbelief of an Alevite, even if only by pledging allegiance to him through the ballot box.

ʾal-ʾImām ʾan-Nawawī has clearly outlined this theme when he rejects any possibility of accepting any command from a dream which negates any command of the established Sharīʿah of Muḥammad (صلى الله عليه و سلم), no matter how pious the narrator may be, and even if he claims to have heard the dream-command from Rasūlullāh (صلى الله عليه و سلم) himself.

Thus there is no contradiction when I say that we have to abide by Allāh’s Law, even while we accept that He, as King of Kings, may intend a different outcome.

5. Pontificating by Foreign Muslims

The above four points encompass general principles applicable to all Muslims, and thus I do not refrain from stating them. However, we should also be wary of pontificating on every place and person. Let alone not having Allāh’s knowledge, our predecessors did not impose their views on distant lands which they did not understand. You can read my article on ʾal-ʾImām Mālik here.

I have never been to Turkey and have no direct association with it. I do not have enough knowledge and understanding of the local situation to categorically condone the policies of Erdogan as a gradual process to an ultimate Islāmic utopia, and cheer him as the next best thing to the Mahdī. Nor am I in a position to condemn him as a hypocrite and deceiver.

May Allāh protect the faith and honour of the Turks and all Muslims.

سليمان الكندي

Twitter: @sulayman_kindi